| List Price: | |
| Price: | $9.99 & eligible for FREE Super Saver Shipping on orders over $25. Details... |
| You Save: | $0.00(0.00%) |
| Binding: | Kindle Edition |
| EAN: | |
| Feature: | |
| Label: | Grand Central Publishing |
| Publisher: | Grand Central Publishing |
| Studio: | Grand Central Publishing |
| Tags: | per gallon inevitable rise price gasoline change our lives better |
Editorial Reviews
Imagine an everyday world in which the price of gasoline (and oil) continues to go up, and up, and up. Think about the immediate impact that would have on our lives.
Of course, everybody already knows how about gasoline has affected our driving habits. People can't wait to junk their gas-guzzling SUVs for a new Prius. But there are more, not-so-obvious changes on the horizon that Chris Steiner tracks brilliantly in this provocative work.
Consider the following societal changes: people who own homes in far-off suburbs will soon realize that there's no longer any market for their houses (reason: nobody wants to live too far away because it's too expensive to commute to work). Telecommuting will begin to expand rapidly. Trains will become the mode of national transportation (as it used to be) as the price of flying becomes prohibitive. Families will begin to migrate southward as the price of heating northern homes in the winter is too pricey. Cheap everyday items that are comprised of plastic will go away because of the rising price to produce them (plastic is derived from oil). And this is just the beginning of a huge and overwhelming domino effect that our way of life will undergo in the years to come.
Steiner, an engineer by training before turning to journalism, sees how this simple but constant rise in oil and gas prices will totally re-structure our lifestyle. But what may be surprising to readers is that all of these changes may not be negative - but actually will usher in some new and very promising aspects of our society.
Steiner will probe how the liberation of technology and innovation, triggered by climbing gas prices, will change our lives. The book may start as an alarmist's exercise.... but don't be misled. The future will be exhilarating.
Of course, everybody already knows how about gasoline has affected our driving habits. People can't wait to junk their gas-guzzling SUVs for a new Prius. But there are more, not-so-obvious changes on the horizon that Chris Steiner tracks brilliantly in this provocative work.
Consider the following societal changes: people who own homes in far-off suburbs will soon realize that there's no longer any market for their houses (reason: nobody wants to live too far away because it's too expensive to commute to work). Telecommuting will begin to expand rapidly. Trains will become the mode of national transportation (as it used to be) as the price of flying becomes prohibitive. Families will begin to migrate southward as the price of heating northern homes in the winter is too pricey. Cheap everyday items that are comprised of plastic will go away because of the rising price to produce them (plastic is derived from oil). And this is just the beginning of a huge and overwhelming domino effect that our way of life will undergo in the years to come.
Steiner, an engineer by training before turning to journalism, sees how this simple but constant rise in oil and gas prices will totally re-structure our lifestyle. But what may be surprising to readers is that all of these changes may not be negative - but actually will usher in some new and very promising aspects of our society.
Steiner will probe how the liberation of technology and innovation, triggered by climbing gas prices, will change our lives. The book may start as an alarmist's exercise.... but don't be misled. The future will be exhilarating.
Related Reviews
It is easy to criticize, but difficult to convince
I have spend my last 40 years in the energy business and can tell you that most of Christopher Steiner's predictions are on the money, he readily identified a number of weaknesses and urban myths about the future of energy, nailing the key changes that will occur. In my opinion he is 95% correct, so why only three stars?
He really misses the boat by thinking provincially. This is a book written by an American for Americans and doesn't address how this future affects the rest of the world and America's place in it. He talks about the growth of high speed rail, like has occurred in Europe and Japan. The problem is that the Europeans and Japanese have been investing in infrastructure for future during the last fifty years. America hasn't made ANY of these investments and is nearly bankrupt now, not even being able to afford Social Security, Medicare or any number of other current programs.
The only way that American can afford the more Utopian future that Steiner predicts is by vastly increasing taxes which will stifle industry and move even more businesses abroad. America is at a crossroads that will determine if we will be a third world country with the world's largest military, or if America will adjust to the changing world and be a leader in the new world order. This is something that he glosses over in one paragraph near the end of the book.
The information in this book is important and can provide a road map for the future, but only if readers and the government take it to heart. Unfortunately, through Steiner's provincial outlook the reader is forced to "read between the lines" for the clues that will allow government, businesses and individuals to prosper in the coming storm.
He really misses the boat by thinking provincially. This is a book written by an American for Americans and doesn't address how this future affects the rest of the world and America's place in it. He talks about the growth of high speed rail, like has occurred in Europe and Japan. The problem is that the Europeans and Japanese have been investing in infrastructure for future during the last fifty years. America hasn't made ANY of these investments and is nearly bankrupt now, not even being able to afford Social Security, Medicare or any number of other current programs.
The only way that American can afford the more Utopian future that Steiner predicts is by vastly increasing taxes which will stifle industry and move even more businesses abroad. America is at a crossroads that will determine if we will be a third world country with the world's largest military, or if America will adjust to the changing world and be a leader in the new world order. This is something that he glosses over in one paragraph near the end of the book.
The information in this book is important and can provide a road map for the future, but only if readers and the government take it to heart. Unfortunately, through Steiner's provincial outlook the reader is forced to "read between the lines" for the clues that will allow government, businesses and individuals to prosper in the coming storm.
Most people don't change until they're forced to - this describes how it will happen.
The book's structure - chapters going up with the price of gas - is elegant and clever.
It's a fascinating breakdown of how gas prices affect our world and how, in a world of higher and higher prices, how we'll adjust. The relationship between gas prices and car fatalities - wow. The relationship between gas prices and obesity? That's simply amazing. But when you think about, it makes perfect sense, as the supporting research shows.
There are so many great characters throughout the book, from the farmer in Chapter $16 to the driver of the electric UPS truck in Chapter $10. The commerical carp fishermen have to take the cake, though! I've read about Shai Agassi before, but his mission always amazes me.
I almost think there could have been an additional chapter on the psychology of Americans regarding gas prices. There almost seems to be a sense of entitlement with many people, a sense that they're owed low gas prices and it's the government's job to keep them low. We treat gasoline, for some reason, differently than anything else.
But oil is a wild, wild market. Don't think that because prices are down next week that they'll be down in a year. They could go completely bonkers. And they likely will.
And the New York chapter of this book simply rules. Excellent read.
It's a fascinating breakdown of how gas prices affect our world and how, in a world of higher and higher prices, how we'll adjust. The relationship between gas prices and car fatalities - wow. The relationship between gas prices and obesity? That's simply amazing. But when you think about, it makes perfect sense, as the supporting research shows.
There are so many great characters throughout the book, from the farmer in Chapter $16 to the driver of the electric UPS truck in Chapter $10. The commerical carp fishermen have to take the cake, though! I've read about Shai Agassi before, but his mission always amazes me.
I almost think there could have been an additional chapter on the psychology of Americans regarding gas prices. There almost seems to be a sense of entitlement with many people, a sense that they're owed low gas prices and it's the government's job to keep them low. We treat gasoline, for some reason, differently than anything else.
But oil is a wild, wild market. Don't think that because prices are down next week that they'll be down in a year. They could go completely bonkers. And they likely will.
And the New York chapter of this book simply rules. Excellent read.
Interesting thought experiment, fatally flawed
The peak oil hypothesis may be very real; at the very least, as the author notes, large deposits of easily accessible oil will become harder to find, concurrent with increasing demand from China, India and other parts of the (rapidly) developing world; the combination will clearly lead to higher prices of oil, and therefore gasoline. The format is a novel one: how would life change with each relatively sizeable incremental increase in the average price of fuel at the pump. I'm guessing that the book concept was approved in 1H 2008, and the drop in In the market price of oil (and gasoline) by year end made the release timing somewhat awkward; ah well, the market giveth and the market taketh away.
In the hands of a more objective and rigorous writer, this could have been a very useful book; even as it stands, it provides some interesting insights (or at least stimulates thinking). Unfortunately, there are a few flaws that made me regularly roll my eyes, and ultimately discount the book's value:
First, for the sake of dramatic impact, the author assumes that the price of gasoline will increase in a matter of months to his initial target range - he's found an equity analyst or university professor who says that gas will reach $10 in the next year or two; he ignores the dozens of others who would disagree (a recurring theme), and even that one probably wishes he could take back his mid-08 quote 6 months later. While oil (and gas) prices are set at the margin and therefore volatile, this is likely to be a years- or decades-long process.
Second, the cure for high prices, as the saying goes, is high prices. The author gives little credit to human ingenuity and willingness to change consumption patterns. He notes that diesel use will go up, and that electric car use will come into vogue, but discounts the impact of those (and numerous other) initiatives on the ability to continue to drive, i.e. substitution effects. If gas prices really do ratchet as high as $6 in the next couple of years, the vehicle fleet will shift fairly rapidly in composition. As the author notes, Ford already sells 60-70 mpg vehicles in Europe (as do other automakers), and the only thing keeping those away from our shores is market demand. People aren't stupid, they'll adjust. By the time gas reaches $20/gallon, if it ever does, many adjustments will be made without completely changing the American lifestyle. The author repeatedly says that people won't buy electric cars in any numbers at $25k and above. I'm guessing that he's a) an urban dweller, and b) not all that well paid as a scribe at Forbes, and therefore c) hasn't shopped for a car in a while - what does he think the average car costs today?
Similarly, US consumers can weather higher gas prices much more easily than the new consumers in India and China due to income. If prices rise as much as he expects, demand will drop considerably in those emerging markets. The Chinese and Indian economies have lived without cars for a long time; the growth in demand in those countries will flatten or reverse fairly quickly if the author's scenario(s) prove out, reducing the price (or at least the pace of price increases) to US and European consumers.
Third, the book is largely anecdotal rather than analytical. It makes it an easy and engaging read, but doesn't do much to make the author's case. Remind me again why WalMart will be eliminated at $14 (or was it $12) but not at $8 or $16? He had a number of points to make, and seemingly spread them among random chapters.
Finally, there's an overriding sense of self-righteous, vindictive contempt for the way Americans choose to live their lives today that comes through consistently (especially in the chapter on the "Death of WalMart"). The author believes we should all live in walkable, mixed use urban centers or main-street focused small towns; he yearns for an idyllic past that never existed, and which suburbanites and exurbanites left because they wanted to. I hate to throw out the overused cliche "urban elites", but he's pretty clearly a member, and he can barely disguise his glee that the suburbs and big box stores he despises will be eliminated in a cleansing fire of high gasoline prices. The standard suburban American lifestyle that he hates so much, along with the globalization that makes it possible, are likely to prove more resilient than the author thinks. Sorry, WalMart (and Costco) aren't going away. Deal with it.
In summary, if this really were an objective scenario review it would be much more valuable than it is. As it stands, it's an ideological polemic screed that gives more insight into the author's belief system than it does into possible future outcomes. Too bad, the idea had some potential.
In the hands of a more objective and rigorous writer, this could have been a very useful book; even as it stands, it provides some interesting insights (or at least stimulates thinking). Unfortunately, there are a few flaws that made me regularly roll my eyes, and ultimately discount the book's value:
First, for the sake of dramatic impact, the author assumes that the price of gasoline will increase in a matter of months to his initial target range - he's found an equity analyst or university professor who says that gas will reach $10 in the next year or two; he ignores the dozens of others who would disagree (a recurring theme), and even that one probably wishes he could take back his mid-08 quote 6 months later. While oil (and gas) prices are set at the margin and therefore volatile, this is likely to be a years- or decades-long process.
Second, the cure for high prices, as the saying goes, is high prices. The author gives little credit to human ingenuity and willingness to change consumption patterns. He notes that diesel use will go up, and that electric car use will come into vogue, but discounts the impact of those (and numerous other) initiatives on the ability to continue to drive, i.e. substitution effects. If gas prices really do ratchet as high as $6 in the next couple of years, the vehicle fleet will shift fairly rapidly in composition. As the author notes, Ford already sells 60-70 mpg vehicles in Europe (as do other automakers), and the only thing keeping those away from our shores is market demand. People aren't stupid, they'll adjust. By the time gas reaches $20/gallon, if it ever does, many adjustments will be made without completely changing the American lifestyle. The author repeatedly says that people won't buy electric cars in any numbers at $25k and above. I'm guessing that he's a) an urban dweller, and b) not all that well paid as a scribe at Forbes, and therefore c) hasn't shopped for a car in a while - what does he think the average car costs today?
Similarly, US consumers can weather higher gas prices much more easily than the new consumers in India and China due to income. If prices rise as much as he expects, demand will drop considerably in those emerging markets. The Chinese and Indian economies have lived without cars for a long time; the growth in demand in those countries will flatten or reverse fairly quickly if the author's scenario(s) prove out, reducing the price (or at least the pace of price increases) to US and European consumers.
Third, the book is largely anecdotal rather than analytical. It makes it an easy and engaging read, but doesn't do much to make the author's case. Remind me again why WalMart will be eliminated at $14 (or was it $12) but not at $8 or $16? He had a number of points to make, and seemingly spread them among random chapters.
Finally, there's an overriding sense of self-righteous, vindictive contempt for the way Americans choose to live their lives today that comes through consistently (especially in the chapter on the "Death of WalMart"). The author believes we should all live in walkable, mixed use urban centers or main-street focused small towns; he yearns for an idyllic past that never existed, and which suburbanites and exurbanites left because they wanted to. I hate to throw out the overused cliche "urban elites", but he's pretty clearly a member, and he can barely disguise his glee that the suburbs and big box stores he despises will be eliminated in a cleansing fire of high gasoline prices. The standard suburban American lifestyle that he hates so much, along with the globalization that makes it possible, are likely to prove more resilient than the author thinks. Sorry, WalMart (and Costco) aren't going away. Deal with it.
In summary, if this really were an objective scenario review it would be much more valuable than it is. As it stands, it's an ideological polemic screed that gives more insight into the author's belief system than it does into possible future outcomes. Too bad, the idea had some potential.
Christopher Steiner's well written and insightful read cleverly proffers the "what if's" and syllogistically answers the "what then's" of how the menacing rise of oil prices will affect our lives and for the better. As we borrow trillions from China and gift it to the Saudi's, Chavez , and the other crazies, Steiner bravely peers into the future and posits that subtle changes will mount and morph our lives into something more uniting and sane. After reading Steiner's offering while on my SAILboat, I thought I might cancel my plans for a last passage to Pitcairin Island, and stick around for a while. Nice job, Christopher. Great read, guys.
Not only is this an on-target analysis of the energy crunch to come, Steiner tells us what we can do about it before we get clobbered by it. Simply brilliant. Tell all of your elected officials and friends about this book. John Wasik, author, "The Cul-de-Sac Syndrome"
Very innovative and an excellent read!
With global economies predicated on the ready availability and low cost of the frequently volatile commodity of oil it's a wonder policy makers pay so little attention to addressing the issue. "$20 Per Gallon" seeks to get readers to thinking about the volatility of oil prices and what those increases mean to them in the macroeconomic sense. But rather than being a dryly written treatise of interest only to economists Steiner takes a unique approach that makes the consequences of higher gas prices quite clear to readers: each chapter is broken out by the price of a gallon of gas and lays out the consequences of what that means to individual consumers and the broader economy. As a senior editor at Forbes magazine Steiner is used to making economics comprehensible to lay people and he does so here to a devastating effect with writing that is crisp, clear and cogent. A great example is when gas hits $6 per gallon. At that point Steiner posits that consumers will make a permanent shift away from SUVs and much of our current commuter culture will start to buckle as parents no longer are willing or able to shuttle children to an endless round of athletic events and practices, tutoring, and the like. Exurban areas will start to see a loss of population back to city cores that will only accelerate when the prices continue further upwards. By the time you reach $12 per gallon the sustainability of our "just-in-time" method of stocking retail and factories is unsustainable. Big box retailers will have to rethink how to do business. Suburbanites will have to rethink living away from their jobs. But there are many other less obvious areas of our economy that would be affected by such an increase that Steiner points out.
At times it is tempting to think of Steiner as Robert Malthus reborn, and "$20 Per Gallon" at times has a ring of prior authors who predicted doom such as "The Population Explosion" back in the 1960s. But in that case the Green Revolution in agriculture staved off disaster. Given the volatility in oil prices it's hard to expect a time where $12 per gallon would be a condition of stasis but certainly not out of the question. The supply shocks of the 1970s were short living and produced some beneficial changes to individual economies, but the supply shortage following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 pointed out how vulnerable supplies can be and the harm that came as a result. The global economic slowdown kept prices low but an economic recovery may quickly snuff out that upturn if oil prices spike too high too quickly. What Steiner hopes to prompt is spurring federal officials, policy makers, business leaders and political economics to take action to avert potential problems before they arise. The same applies to consumers in their everyday lives as a spike in oil prices certainly jeopardizes the foundation of the economy and society we enjoy.
"$20 Per Gallon" is certainly a provocative book and it is intended to be so. Steiner's point is to spur debate over how to prepare for increased price volatility on this essential resource so that we can be proactive rather than reactive. But it's not all Malthusian doom and gloom as Steiner points out potential benefits and bright spots that will help mitigate the more serious consequences of higher gas prices. While not the "feel good" book of the year it's essential reading nonetheless!
At times it is tempting to think of Steiner as Robert Malthus reborn, and "$20 Per Gallon" at times has a ring of prior authors who predicted doom such as "The Population Explosion" back in the 1960s. But in that case the Green Revolution in agriculture staved off disaster. Given the volatility in oil prices it's hard to expect a time where $12 per gallon would be a condition of stasis but certainly not out of the question. The supply shocks of the 1970s were short living and produced some beneficial changes to individual economies, but the supply shortage following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 pointed out how vulnerable supplies can be and the harm that came as a result. The global economic slowdown kept prices low but an economic recovery may quickly snuff out that upturn if oil prices spike too high too quickly. What Steiner hopes to prompt is spurring federal officials, policy makers, business leaders and political economics to take action to avert potential problems before they arise. The same applies to consumers in their everyday lives as a spike in oil prices certainly jeopardizes the foundation of the economy and society we enjoy.
"$20 Per Gallon" is certainly a provocative book and it is intended to be so. Steiner's point is to spur debate over how to prepare for increased price volatility on this essential resource so that we can be proactive rather than reactive. But it's not all Malthusian doom and gloom as Steiner points out potential benefits and bright spots that will help mitigate the more serious consequences of higher gas prices. While not the "feel good" book of the year it's essential reading nonetheless!
With a title like "$20 Per Gallon," how could anyone not want to pick up this book just out of curiosity? The price of gasoline affects us very much. The author says that besides the cost to fill up our tanks, the price of gasoline affects other things such the plastic in our refrigerator, the asphalt on our roads, and the shingles on our roofs. As the price of gasoline increases, so do the costs of these items.
The author argues that the price of gasoline will only increase in the future compared to where the prices are right now. His reasoning is based on the following facts:
1. The demand for oil will gradually increase and will continue to increase as the global middle class expands.
2. The oil that remains in the earth will be more and more expensive to locate and extract.
Besides supporting the author's prediction, he also explains to readers how this increase in gasoline prices will affect their lives in a big way. If you are curious about how your life might change in the future as a result of gasoline prices, you will enjoy this book.
- Mariusz Skonieczny, author of Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? Learn how to invest your money, how to pick stocks, and how to make money in the stock market
The author argues that the price of gasoline will only increase in the future compared to where the prices are right now. His reasoning is based on the following facts:
1. The demand for oil will gradually increase and will continue to increase as the global middle class expands.
2. The oil that remains in the earth will be more and more expensive to locate and extract.
Besides supporting the author's prediction, he also explains to readers how this increase in gasoline prices will affect their lives in a big way. If you are curious about how your life might change in the future as a result of gasoline prices, you will enjoy this book.
- Mariusz Skonieczny, author of Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? Learn how to invest your money, how to pick stocks, and how to make money in the stock market
An excellent, easy read despite very complex issues. It says our lives will change. Our children's lives will really change and like our farmer grandparents don't recognize our world, neither will we believe the one our grandchildren will reside. This book shows the future, and it's something Americans can't stop. But, the book shows how we can turn these massive changes to our advantage.
Great book. I couldn't put it down.
I thought this was a great book, even in the parts I disagreed with. It made me rethink a lot of things. For example, as oil prices go up, so does the price of asphalt. It's not just a matter of trying to get more miles per gallon. The highway system will become more expensive to maintain.
The main thing I disagreed with was the part about container shipping (which is a business I work in). Container shipping will stay around because it is the cheapest way to move goods in bulk. It IS energy-efficient. The ships and ports can be made more energy-efficient over time. Steiner does not exactly say this is not so but glosses over it. If you ordered something from Amazon that is made in China (not this book but perhaps some toy) and had it express-shipped to you, the energy costs of getting it from the container port to Amazon's warehouse to your house will be more than the cost of getting it across the Pacific Ocean in a container ship.
The main thing I disagreed with was the part about container shipping (which is a business I work in). Container shipping will stay around because it is the cheapest way to move goods in bulk. It IS energy-efficient. The ships and ports can be made more energy-efficient over time. Steiner does not exactly say this is not so but glosses over it. If you ordered something from Amazon that is made in China (not this book but perhaps some toy) and had it express-shipped to you, the energy costs of getting it from the container port to Amazon's warehouse to your house will be more than the cost of getting it across the Pacific Ocean in a container ship.
Great "What if" read that manages to be both informative and suspenseful
I typically don't read non-fiction in the summer but I grabbed this off my husband's night table and it turned out to be a great read. The topic, while quite serious, is handled so engagingly and I loved the way the book was organized with each succeeding chapter analyzing yet another incremental increase at the pump. It's truly a general interest read, not just for those interested in energy or economic issues. The author shows how oil consumption is so profoundly at the core of our society and economy, but in the manner of great explanatory journalism: through telling examples, deep research, and smooth writing.
I've read other "what if" scenario books and uniformly they seem to take a negative "scare the heck out of the reader" point of view. This one is completely different. Sure, there will be problems associated with the rising price of oil, and some painful changes are ahead, but Steiner effectively argues that with this challenge comes a great opportunity and potentially positive long-term impact on U.S. society in particular. Some may disagree with his predictions, but they are thought provoking and eminently discussable. Which is pretty much my definition of an excellent non-fiction read.
I've read other "what if" scenario books and uniformly they seem to take a negative "scare the heck out of the reader" point of view. This one is completely different. Sure, there will be problems associated with the rising price of oil, and some painful changes are ahead, but Steiner effectively argues that with this challenge comes a great opportunity and potentially positive long-term impact on U.S. society in particular. Some may disagree with his predictions, but they are thought provoking and eminently discussable. Which is pretty much my definition of an excellent non-fiction read.
The American Way of Life Is About to Be Turned on Its Head
This was a page-turner of a non-fiction book. It's a future peek into what the United States will be like when the price of oil reaches certain levels, which for the purposes of this book were $6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, and 20 dollars per gallon. The unavoidable skyrocketing price of oil worldwide, which is used to construct much of the American Dream (the author does as excellent job of identifying all the products we use daily that are made from oil, but which people don't realize are oil byproducts) will force major lifestyle changes on the average American whether they like it or not. The rest of the world will demand more of the world's oil supply for their version of tiny, boxy, stripped down to absolute necessities, golf cart-like Nano cars that would never pass American Auto Safety Standards.
It's a bleak future world in many ways, but the author points out that life will probably be healthier and better once the damage done by the invention of the automobile and unsustainable "cheap oil capitalism" is corrected by economic laws of supply and demand. (This previous statement tips off the reader to a likely bias by the author against both cars and capitalism). For those three or four car families living in the outer suburbs or even farther away from cities, the future shock won't be pleasant or easy. The recent $4 dollar a gallon gasoline prices gave a hint of what will happen in the near future. One of the flaws I think I found in the author's arguments was his theory that the price of oil will reach $6 per gallon during 2010. He quotes one expert, "Jeffrey Rubin, a respected economist and the chief strategist and managing director of CIBC world markets who says gasoline will likely cost $7 a gallon by 2010." I felt that Mr. Steiner and Mr. Rubin were under estimating the amount of time it would take for the American Economy to recover from the current recession. Without a normal recovery, I personally don't feel we will experience $6 or $7 a gallon gasoline for a least six years when it's estimated that United States employment will again reach the 2008 levels. The current actions of the federal administration practically guarantees a jobless recovery, rising interest rates to pay for all the government borrowing and a western European Socialist Government's normal unemployment rate of about 16 percent. Obama is steering the USA full speed ahead toward a return of the Jimmy Carter Era of high taxes and stagflation. Here come the 12% inflation rate and 21% mortgage rates again.
The oil price might indeed reach $6 or $7 per gallon in 2010 if desperate state, county and federal governments decide to raise the gasoline taxes or pass the Tax and Cap Bill that will cause the price of all energy to double. All governments in the US are going to need to increase their taxes to make up for the loss of income taxes from the continuing, seemingly endless high unemployment rate. As people use less gasoline, the taxes on
that commodity will need to increase to fill the government's needs. Using less gasoline will mean higher taxes on what is used. It's a classic vicious economic cycle.
Here is a list of most of the chapter titles in this "future shock" volume. "Society Change and the Dead SUV, The Skies Will Be Empty, The Car Diminished but Reborn, Urban Revolution and Suburban Decay, The Fate of Small Towns, U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance, and Our Material World, The Food Web Deconstructed, Renaissance of the Rails, and The Future of Energy."
After the widespread pain to the publc, the nation will probably be better off but much less mobile. Flying in planes will be only for the rich, more than one car per family will be unusual, large cars will be practically extinct except for those in the government service, small houses, apartments and townhouses will be the norm, the outer suburbs and malls (ghost boxes is the nickname for abandoned Wal-Mart Stores) will be ghost box towns crumbling into dust. Those people who live far from their employment will find their homes steadily going down in value only this time, the prices will never recover because of the constantly rising costs of getting to and from them and of heating and cooling them once there.
Increased subways and train routes will be welcomed, demanded by the public and many highways will be used or divided to create beds and easements for new railroad lines.
This is a well-written, easy to read, thought provoking, maybe too optimistic preview of the abandonment of the American Dream, the death of the love affair with the car and most other materialistic desires allowed to grow because of "cheap oil capitalism." And unlike Europe with its $6 per gallon gasoline now (most of which is government taxes used to support its socialistic policies), it will take decades to develop and build the mass transit systems to replace the automobile society in America. The average American will have his wings clipped and find his freedom to travel severely limited by rising fuel costs. It will be a tough time for average Americans.
Whether or not you agree with everything in the book the reader will still find the book very thought provoking. If nothing else, it should make people start to think about living in places with good mass transit, food stores and other consumer services located within walking distance and definitely living closer to one's job and schools. I loved the section on "The Skies Will Be Empty." Using the experiences of an ex-commercial pilot "used airliner dealer" or the owner of a "bone yard" or desert "plane graveyard" as most people know these used planes and parts parking lots, the author explains in a fascinating and easy to comprehend way how bad things really are with the Commercial Airline Industry.
All, or most of these predictions will come true in the future: it's only a matter of when? The changes will be forced upon all of us by simple economics, energy needs and higher taxes on everything we need to survive. As a real estate broker I wouldn't want to overpay for a rural country or summer home. The market for hard-to-reach homes will be dead, dead, dead. This book is well worth the time it takes to read. All or most of this future is heading towards the United States like a giant, unstoppable tidal wave.
Excellent, calorie-free food for thought!
It's a bleak future world in many ways, but the author points out that life will probably be healthier and better once the damage done by the invention of the automobile and unsustainable "cheap oil capitalism" is corrected by economic laws of supply and demand. (This previous statement tips off the reader to a likely bias by the author against both cars and capitalism). For those three or four car families living in the outer suburbs or even farther away from cities, the future shock won't be pleasant or easy. The recent $4 dollar a gallon gasoline prices gave a hint of what will happen in the near future. One of the flaws I think I found in the author's arguments was his theory that the price of oil will reach $6 per gallon during 2010. He quotes one expert, "Jeffrey Rubin, a respected economist and the chief strategist and managing director of CIBC world markets who says gasoline will likely cost $7 a gallon by 2010." I felt that Mr. Steiner and Mr. Rubin were under estimating the amount of time it would take for the American Economy to recover from the current recession. Without a normal recovery, I personally don't feel we will experience $6 or $7 a gallon gasoline for a least six years when it's estimated that United States employment will again reach the 2008 levels. The current actions of the federal administration practically guarantees a jobless recovery, rising interest rates to pay for all the government borrowing and a western European Socialist Government's normal unemployment rate of about 16 percent. Obama is steering the USA full speed ahead toward a return of the Jimmy Carter Era of high taxes and stagflation. Here come the 12% inflation rate and 21% mortgage rates again.
The oil price might indeed reach $6 or $7 per gallon in 2010 if desperate state, county and federal governments decide to raise the gasoline taxes or pass the Tax and Cap Bill that will cause the price of all energy to double. All governments in the US are going to need to increase their taxes to make up for the loss of income taxes from the continuing, seemingly endless high unemployment rate. As people use less gasoline, the taxes on
that commodity will need to increase to fill the government's needs. Using less gasoline will mean higher taxes on what is used. It's a classic vicious economic cycle.
Here is a list of most of the chapter titles in this "future shock" volume. "Society Change and the Dead SUV, The Skies Will Be Empty, The Car Diminished but Reborn, Urban Revolution and Suburban Decay, The Fate of Small Towns, U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance, and Our Material World, The Food Web Deconstructed, Renaissance of the Rails, and The Future of Energy."
After the widespread pain to the publc, the nation will probably be better off but much less mobile. Flying in planes will be only for the rich, more than one car per family will be unusual, large cars will be practically extinct except for those in the government service, small houses, apartments and townhouses will be the norm, the outer suburbs and malls (ghost boxes is the nickname for abandoned Wal-Mart Stores) will be ghost box towns crumbling into dust. Those people who live far from their employment will find their homes steadily going down in value only this time, the prices will never recover because of the constantly rising costs of getting to and from them and of heating and cooling them once there.
Increased subways and train routes will be welcomed, demanded by the public and many highways will be used or divided to create beds and easements for new railroad lines.
This is a well-written, easy to read, thought provoking, maybe too optimistic preview of the abandonment of the American Dream, the death of the love affair with the car and most other materialistic desires allowed to grow because of "cheap oil capitalism." And unlike Europe with its $6 per gallon gasoline now (most of which is government taxes used to support its socialistic policies), it will take decades to develop and build the mass transit systems to replace the automobile society in America. The average American will have his wings clipped and find his freedom to travel severely limited by rising fuel costs. It will be a tough time for average Americans.
Whether or not you agree with everything in the book the reader will still find the book very thought provoking. If nothing else, it should make people start to think about living in places with good mass transit, food stores and other consumer services located within walking distance and definitely living closer to one's job and schools. I loved the section on "The Skies Will Be Empty." Using the experiences of an ex-commercial pilot "used airliner dealer" or the owner of a "bone yard" or desert "plane graveyard" as most people know these used planes and parts parking lots, the author explains in a fascinating and easy to comprehend way how bad things really are with the Commercial Airline Industry.
All, or most of these predictions will come true in the future: it's only a matter of when? The changes will be forced upon all of us by simple economics, energy needs and higher taxes on everything we need to survive. As a real estate broker I wouldn't want to overpay for a rural country or summer home. The market for hard-to-reach homes will be dead, dead, dead. This book is well worth the time it takes to read. All or most of this future is heading towards the United States like a giant, unstoppable tidal wave.
Excellent, calorie-free food for thought!
Good things will happen once oil prices rise enough
Christopher Steiner is optimistic about what will happen when oil prices go so high that gasoline costs $20 dollars per gallon, though he admits that the transition will be difficult. $20 Per Gallon examines what will happen and how the changes will occur.
The author is a journalist and the book is written in a journalistic style. There are endnotes and citations, but few are primary sources. He does not claim to be doing new research. The book has chapters named for price per gallon ($6, $8, $10, etc.) Each chapter describes what will change at the different price point.
Though the book is obviously speculative, the descriptions seem plausible to me, though rather optimistic. By the end we will be living in a world where few travel and most of what we consume is produced locally. The author describes this in positive terms, but it seems to me this world will have lost the best of our world.
The biggest flaw I see in this book is that it does not consider alternative fuels. A revival of trains is discussed, but for the most part the author imagines we will passively accept the loss of mobility resulting from higher gas prices. I would expect that many people will see this as an opportunity and develop fuels that offer at least a partial replacement.
In any case we should be in for interesting times.
The author is a journalist and the book is written in a journalistic style. There are endnotes and citations, but few are primary sources. He does not claim to be doing new research. The book has chapters named for price per gallon ($6, $8, $10, etc.) Each chapter describes what will change at the different price point.
Though the book is obviously speculative, the descriptions seem plausible to me, though rather optimistic. By the end we will be living in a world where few travel and most of what we consume is produced locally. The author describes this in positive terms, but it seems to me this world will have lost the best of our world.
The biggest flaw I see in this book is that it does not consider alternative fuels. A revival of trains is discussed, but for the most part the author imagines we will passively accept the loss of mobility resulting from higher gas prices. I would expect that many people will see this as an opportunity and develop fuels that offer at least a partial replacement.
In any case we should be in for interesting times.
A realistic glimpse of our future
This is a "what if" book and it does it as well as any I have seen. We all know that the current price of gas can't last but we rarely think of the implications for our lives if the price should rise to $4, $6, $8 and beyond. This book explores those possibilities and discusses how the changes will be difficult but that the results will be better for all. It is a book that ought to be read by every politician (local, state and federal), every CEO and every citizen.
This book strikes the perfect chord on this subject. Not too alarmist. Not too glib.
I loved how far the book ranged, how it touches on all of the things that the price of gasoline affects. It's truly amazing how our world will be changed as the price of gas goes up.
The author points out that many of the changes coming won't be comfortable ones. But they'll be far more comfortable if we prepare NOW. I found the food sections to be especially interesting. I'll never think of sushi or fish the same ever again.
I've begun to rethink everything I do, everything my family does. How many of our habits, our vacations, our ways-of-life are sustainable?
Overall, this book was very well written, easily digestible and intensely interesting. Definitely my favorite within the genre.
The author points out that many of the changes coming won't be comfortable ones. But they'll be far more comfortable if we prepare NOW. I found the food sections to be especially interesting. I'll never think of sushi or fish the same ever again.
I've begun to rethink everything I do, everything my family does. How many of our habits, our vacations, our ways-of-life are sustainable?
Overall, this book was very well written, easily digestible and intensely interesting. Definitely my favorite within the genre.
Excellent book - even for 11 year olds
My name is Arielle (I am posting under my dad's account, with his permission). I am eleven years old and while this is not typical of the books I normally read, my dad bought a copy of this book and I asked him if I could read it first. I liked the book very much, particularly because it showed how the price of oil & gas would affect our lives in the long run.
I've heard my parents talk about the price of gas, but didn't really understand the impact until I read this book. I also didn't realize how much gas is used in everything I use daily! This book can open up your eyes as a reader, and show how hard people work to make our lives easier, and yet how much damage can be caused when we ignore the environment.
The book also showed another side to the story of oil & gas - how much greener our future could be and the advances we could make. I recommend reading this book, and even maybe making an abridged version for kids. This book can really help educate the future.
I've heard my parents talk about the price of gas, but didn't really understand the impact until I read this book. I also didn't realize how much gas is used in everything I use daily! This book can open up your eyes as a reader, and show how hard people work to make our lives easier, and yet how much damage can be caused when we ignore the environment.
The book also showed another side to the story of oil & gas - how much greener our future could be and the advances we could make. I recommend reading this book, and even maybe making an abridged version for kids. This book can really help educate the future.
Great Read, Interesting Perspective
Without preaching and without any agenda, Steiner tells the stories of individuals and of society should gasoline prices rise past $4 a gallon. Whether or not you see more expensive gas as fact in the future, its fun to think about how much things would change if it did happen. Good characters, great reporting and an intriguing premise make for a very enjoyable read. Worth a look.
Excellent read and courageous endeavour. Highly recommended
Finally, a well-tempered antidote to American consumerism, and a refreshing break from doomsday peak-oil prophets.
In this well-guided and engaging book, Steiner, a senior writer at Forbes magazine, walks us through a more hopeful future of high oil prices, where, as he demonstrates, all facets of our globalized economy will be impacted. Oil economics is a sensitive issue for Americans (see other reviewers comments herein) and Steiner navigates this treacherous terrain with deft and natural ability.
I will say what I liked most about Steiner's approach is that it's hands-on and contains real-life anecdotes from businesses and professionals who are, right now (and in some instances, have been - prior to the peak in '08) preparing for life in a world of higher oil prices. This gives me, and should give everyone else, hope. As the price of oil starts to rise again, some businesses are prepared and have actually been taking pre-emptive measures to give themselves a competitive advantage in the marketplace. Yes, adaptability, as Steiner notes - not inefficiency, glut, and consumption - is the true hallmark of the American economy and is what fundamentally gives this book life, and I hope for the future. Great read.
In this well-guided and engaging book, Steiner, a senior writer at Forbes magazine, walks us through a more hopeful future of high oil prices, where, as he demonstrates, all facets of our globalized economy will be impacted. Oil economics is a sensitive issue for Americans (see other reviewers comments herein) and Steiner navigates this treacherous terrain with deft and natural ability.
I will say what I liked most about Steiner's approach is that it's hands-on and contains real-life anecdotes from businesses and professionals who are, right now (and in some instances, have been - prior to the peak in '08) preparing for life in a world of higher oil prices. This gives me, and should give everyone else, hope. As the price of oil starts to rise again, some businesses are prepared and have actually been taking pre-emptive measures to give themselves a competitive advantage in the marketplace. Yes, adaptability, as Steiner notes - not inefficiency, glut, and consumption - is the true hallmark of the American economy and is what fundamentally gives this book life, and I hope for the future. Great read.
I am in complete agreement that gas is going to get a lot more expensive and that society is going to have to change. However, the author's rant is inconsistent and unlikely to convince anyone who doesn't already hold his viewpoint. In one chapter, he claims that UPS will flourish. Later, he claims that almost everything will be produced locally. He asserts that air travel will become much less common, but doesn't discuss real dollar prices much different from those before airline deregulation. Yes, we flew less, but it wasn't completely out of reach. These sorts of apparent contradictions abound. The worst is that he discusses other technologies but completely discounts the option that additional options to fossil fuels will be developed. Alternately, if nuclear power becomes as accepted as he suggests at the end of the book, electric power could be used instead of fossil fuels.
Furthermore, as another reviewer points out, the author largely ignores the rest of the world where gas is generally much more expensive than in the US. Much of Europe already has the type of society the author envisions. Oil is a world commodity, and the rest of the world should be discussed.
The whole book comes across as a Utopian Fantasy rather than a practical discussion of what problems we need to start solving now. The author completely ignores the economic upheavals which would be created by transitioning to his imagined world. I tend to agree that his Fantasy sounds pretty good. But how do we actually get there from here? I am very disappointed in this book.
Furthermore, as another reviewer points out, the author largely ignores the rest of the world where gas is generally much more expensive than in the US. Much of Europe already has the type of society the author envisions. Oil is a world commodity, and the rest of the world should be discussed.
The whole book comes across as a Utopian Fantasy rather than a practical discussion of what problems we need to start solving now. The author completely ignores the economic upheavals which would be created by transitioning to his imagined world. I tend to agree that his Fantasy sounds pretty good. But how do we actually get there from here? I am very disappointed in this book.
Gas Prices will go up -- the question, though, is what will happen?
I thought this did a terrific job parsing out the effects of higher gas prices as they roll in. The author's stories about the organic farmer and the airplane graveyard owner are great. Very descriptive.
He acknowledges the flaws of electric cars and why they alone won't allow us to live at the same level we do now. It's about a looming paradigm change and how we'll adapt. Defining the changes as they come in by the price of gas is a great organizing device. Chapter 16 - the food chapter - is a great one.
My question is at what point does the government get proactive here? We can't wait purely on the markets to fix this, can we? Europeans pay [..] per gallon. We pay [..] Why can't we pay [..]? Perhaps a slow sprinkling-in of gas taxes is the best medicine here.
Bottom line: we have to change our lives. The price of gas can force us, or we can get more proactive about it.
He acknowledges the flaws of electric cars and why they alone won't allow us to live at the same level we do now. It's about a looming paradigm change and how we'll adapt. Defining the changes as they come in by the price of gas is a great organizing device. Chapter 16 - the food chapter - is a great one.
My question is at what point does the government get proactive here? We can't wait purely on the markets to fix this, can we? Europeans pay [..] per gallon. We pay [..] Why can't we pay [..]? Perhaps a slow sprinkling-in of gas taxes is the best medicine here.
Bottom line: we have to change our lives. The price of gas can force us, or we can get more proactive about it.
Saw the author on the Today Show and I followed up -- and I'm happy I did.
Let me first admit that it was refreshing to read something that, by and large, kept a positive outlook in regards to our future here on earth. It seems as if there is a palpable population of people out there who are gleefully waiting for society to collapse. Steiner is not one of these people, it's clear.
I found his theory that higher gas prices will release all manners of innovation to be well-reasoned. In some ways, that argument is intuitive. But this book goes places that are far from obvious. You don't realize all the things that gasoline touches in our lives until you have read this book.
This is from a Bloomberg review of the book that I happened upon yesterday:
"Since the entire economy runs on oil, Steiner weaves together themes ranging from the future of the automobile to the sustainability of our food network.
He did his homework. A civil engineer and staff writer at Forbes magazine, he interviewed people -- from economists to airline pilots -- who have calculated how oil at various prices will change where we live, how we travel and what we eat."
I think that pretty much sums it up.
I found the whole book, from the first page to the last, fascinating. I think there are definitely things that Steiner will be wrong about. But anytime you're straight-up predicting the future, that's going to happen. The important thing here is that he's started a new prong to the conversation -- and an important conversation it is.
I found his theory that higher gas prices will release all manners of innovation to be well-reasoned. In some ways, that argument is intuitive. But this book goes places that are far from obvious. You don't realize all the things that gasoline touches in our lives until you have read this book.
This is from a Bloomberg review of the book that I happened upon yesterday:
"Since the entire economy runs on oil, Steiner weaves together themes ranging from the future of the automobile to the sustainability of our food network.
He did his homework. A civil engineer and staff writer at Forbes magazine, he interviewed people -- from economists to airline pilots -- who have calculated how oil at various prices will change where we live, how we travel and what we eat."
I think that pretty much sums it up.
I found the whole book, from the first page to the last, fascinating. I think there are definitely things that Steiner will be wrong about. But anytime you're straight-up predicting the future, that's going to happen. The important thing here is that he's started a new prong to the conversation -- and an important conversation it is.
Many books of this genre are fancifully apocolyptic, based more on imagination and whimsy than on tangible research.
Steiner's book, however, breaks the mold. Working from a sound factual basis, he paints a tangible, engaging picture of the future.
We all know that gasoline powers our cars. But I, for one, hadn't fully realized how many other ways we rely on it: for the food we eat, the houses we live in, and clothes we wear. It's scary to consider how its rise in price might affect us. Steiner walks you through these changes in a way that makes sense, consistently raising important questions and providing thoughtful answers.
The world gives us many reasons to be pessimistic. This book makes me hopeful.
Steiner's book, however, breaks the mold. Working from a sound factual basis, he paints a tangible, engaging picture of the future.
We all know that gasoline powers our cars. But I, for one, hadn't fully realized how many other ways we rely on it: for the food we eat, the houses we live in, and clothes we wear. It's scary to consider how its rise in price might affect us. Steiner walks you through these changes in a way that makes sense, consistently raising important questions and providing thoughtful answers.
The world gives us many reasons to be pessimistic. This book makes me hopeful.
Valuable contribution but too rosy an outlook
Stiener does a nice job with this work and I recommend it. But take it as only one vision of the possible future. I found this work to paint too rosy a picture. If you want to look at the possible darker sides of the peak oil discussion, look to the works of Richard Heinberg and James Kunstler. Then you can decide what makes the most sense.
These works together will change the way you think about everything including what you buy, where you live and work, your finances. We live in interesting times.
These works together will change the way you think about everything including what you buy, where you live and work, your finances. We live in interesting times.
Creative, innovative & well researched - highly recommended!
Synopsis:
Engineer Christopher Steiner argues that the petroleum will become more scarce in the future and that the price of gasoline and oil will similarly increase. He then proceeds to extrapolate how price increases will impact us individually, as a nation, and globally.
The book is organized in a clever manner - each of the ten chapters describes a different scenario based upon the cost of gas. To sum up, here's the list of chapters:
* $ 4 per gallon: The Road to $20 and Civilization Renovation
* $6 per gallon: Society Change and the Dead SUV
* $8 per gallon: The Skies Will Empty
* $10 per gallon: The Car Diminished but Reborn
* $12 per gallon: Urban Revolution and Suburban Decay
* $14 per gallon: The Fate of Small Towns, U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance, and Our Material World
* $ 16 per gallon: The Food Web Deconstructed
* $18 per gallon: Renaissance of the Rails
* $ 20 per gallon: The Future of Energy
Each chapter describes in careful detail the repercussions of drastic increases in the cost of petroleum.
Review:
In $20 Per Gallon, Christopher Steiner makes a compelling argument for the careful management of our resources while describing dramatic changes in the near future. The detailed research behind his statements makes the book an interesting and worthwhile read, but it is his extrapolations that make the book stand out.
Personally, while I was aware that petroleum is a limited resource, I enjoyed his analysis. For instance, he presents a coherent picture of how we can expect an increase in demand from different directions. Going beyond the usual list of how petroleum is used in many everyday products and the growing demand from China to meet its evergrowing production requirements, Steiner brings up technological and market innovations like $2,500 Nano by Tata Motors, increased prosperity in India and China, and increased petroleum consumption in the Middle East.
Here are just a few more of the ideas that caught my attention:
* At $8 per gallon, the cost of flying will be prohibitively high and airlines that have been under considerable financial stress will likely go under. The cost of flying will also decrease both domestic and international travel for business and tourism. Even college students may select schools closer to their homes and prefer local universities and colleges - which would have larger repercussions in the field of education.
* At $10 per gallon, Steiner suggests that the production and use of biodegradable plastic will become more attractive. While I had heard about biodegradable plastic, I enjoyed learning about Dr. Oliver Peoples and his company Metabolix which produces biodegradable plastic that is being used to package products with limited shelf life.
* Steiner described the current planning and construction of a new and technologically smart South Korean city of Songdo. 1,500 acres of reclaimed land, will be completely new and is being touted as the most energy and resource efficient city in the world. Water conservation will be critical and graywater will be installed on a citywide basis. Sustainable design will be apparent and has influenced so many different aspects of the construction from the elevators and concrete to the green roofs and solar cells.
* At $14 per gallon, Steiner predicts the decline of big box stores like Walmart. As China's eighth largest trading partner, the cost of shipping and distribution will grow prohibitively high while shoppers will be detered from the cost of driving 5 to 10 miles to the closest big box store.
As the above shows, Steiner has painted scenarios that are likely to trigger interesting and important discussions. I believe most of us would benefit from reading $20 Per Gallon.
Publisher: Grand Central Publishing; 1 edition (July 15, 2009), 288 pages.
Courtesy of Hatchette Books Group.
Engineer Christopher Steiner argues that the petroleum will become more scarce in the future and that the price of gasoline and oil will similarly increase. He then proceeds to extrapolate how price increases will impact us individually, as a nation, and globally.
The book is organized in a clever manner - each of the ten chapters describes a different scenario based upon the cost of gas. To sum up, here's the list of chapters:
* $ 4 per gallon: The Road to $20 and Civilization Renovation
* $6 per gallon: Society Change and the Dead SUV
* $8 per gallon: The Skies Will Empty
* $10 per gallon: The Car Diminished but Reborn
* $12 per gallon: Urban Revolution and Suburban Decay
* $14 per gallon: The Fate of Small Towns, U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance, and Our Material World
* $ 16 per gallon: The Food Web Deconstructed
* $18 per gallon: Renaissance of the Rails
* $ 20 per gallon: The Future of Energy
Each chapter describes in careful detail the repercussions of drastic increases in the cost of petroleum.
Review:
In $20 Per Gallon, Christopher Steiner makes a compelling argument for the careful management of our resources while describing dramatic changes in the near future. The detailed research behind his statements makes the book an interesting and worthwhile read, but it is his extrapolations that make the book stand out.
Personally, while I was aware that petroleum is a limited resource, I enjoyed his analysis. For instance, he presents a coherent picture of how we can expect an increase in demand from different directions. Going beyond the usual list of how petroleum is used in many everyday products and the growing demand from China to meet its evergrowing production requirements, Steiner brings up technological and market innovations like $2,500 Nano by Tata Motors, increased prosperity in India and China, and increased petroleum consumption in the Middle East.
Here are just a few more of the ideas that caught my attention:
* At $8 per gallon, the cost of flying will be prohibitively high and airlines that have been under considerable financial stress will likely go under. The cost of flying will also decrease both domestic and international travel for business and tourism. Even college students may select schools closer to their homes and prefer local universities and colleges - which would have larger repercussions in the field of education.
* At $10 per gallon, Steiner suggests that the production and use of biodegradable plastic will become more attractive. While I had heard about biodegradable plastic, I enjoyed learning about Dr. Oliver Peoples and his company Metabolix which produces biodegradable plastic that is being used to package products with limited shelf life.
* Steiner described the current planning and construction of a new and technologically smart South Korean city of Songdo. 1,500 acres of reclaimed land, will be completely new and is being touted as the most energy and resource efficient city in the world. Water conservation will be critical and graywater will be installed on a citywide basis. Sustainable design will be apparent and has influenced so many different aspects of the construction from the elevators and concrete to the green roofs and solar cells.
* At $14 per gallon, Steiner predicts the decline of big box stores like Walmart. As China's eighth largest trading partner, the cost of shipping and distribution will grow prohibitively high while shoppers will be detered from the cost of driving 5 to 10 miles to the closest big box store.
As the above shows, Steiner has painted scenarios that are likely to trigger interesting and important discussions. I believe most of us would benefit from reading $20 Per Gallon.
Publisher: Grand Central Publishing; 1 edition (July 15, 2009), 288 pages.
Courtesy of Hatchette Books Group.
stein book on gas prices of the future
Fascinating book that should be MUST reading for the gas guzzling public. This book is not all doom and gloom. Good things will also happen when gas reaches $15 or $20 per gallon. (Neighborhoods will strengthen and return to feelings of community when the ability to travel is lessened - for just one example.) But what will happen to airlines and zillion-truck companies like Wal Mart is also explored. Each chapter is named after the price of a gallon of gas and then the results of that price are explained. In other words, Chapter $5, Chapter $10 etc., all the way up to Chapter $20. Steins ideas are based on sound thinking and existing statistics. (Think twice before building your dream house 15 or 20 miles from where you work and commuting. Not only how much the commute would cost but how much would it cost to get your kids to school activities - and also what YOU would be charged for a service person to come to YOU.) Excellent book, well researched, and well thought out.
A great glimpse at what our future may look like. Great for a book club or school class.
I almost skipped this book thinking it would just be a call for the government to raise gas taxes ASAP, but instead it is a thoughtful analysis of the gradual & sudden changes future rising gas prices will have.
If you are on the fence about this book I suggest first reading the last 6-page Epilogue chapter that summarizes the whole book nicely.
The future world described throughout the book sounds quite appealing after the hard changes have been made - many of them can't come soon enough.
Overall it's a very enjoyable read that gets you thinking. It would be a great discussion-starter for a high school or college class or a book club.
If you are on the fence about this book I suggest first reading the last 6-page Epilogue chapter that summarizes the whole book nicely.
The future world described throughout the book sounds quite appealing after the hard changes have been made - many of them can't come soon enough.
Overall it's a very enjoyable read that gets you thinking. It would be a great discussion-starter for a high school or college class or a book club.
I hope everyone reads this book and takes note
To every action there is a reaction. It is cause and effect. Gas prices go up, and up and up. It affects many aspects of our world. It affects how we live. Gas prices affect whether we travel which affects tourism, which affects salaries, businesses, etc.
Christopher Steiner is an engineer and journalist. He suggests that far in the future we will see gas prices reach $20 per gallon. He sees rising prices as a positive. He purports a cleaner Earth in the future. "There is little to be scared of. The rising price of gas will unlock countless doors to innovation, opportunity and change."
Steiner successfully presents his theory. In my own life I can see the changes already taking place. I use my own cloth bags at the store rather than plastic ones. I group all errands into one trip. I drive a car with a higher mpg rating. My home is cooler in the winter and warmer in the summer due to adjusting my thermostat. We raise much of our own food. I can definitely see where Steiner's theory makes sense. However, I do fear, the economic impact of what he suggests will not be easy or pretty.
Change will leave many jobless, homeless and hungry. He suggests more will work from home. We often forget that many jobs cannot be done from home. Whether it is the sanitation department, ditch diggers, plumbers or factory workers, their jobs cannot be done from home. America has made no effort to prepare for this. Economically it will devastate the country. We are barely hanging on now.
It is my hope that citizens will read this book and take note. We should have begun preparing fifty years ago. It is only with drastic measures that we as a nation can survive what Steiner predicts.
Christopher Steiner is an engineer and journalist. He suggests that far in the future we will see gas prices reach $20 per gallon. He sees rising prices as a positive. He purports a cleaner Earth in the future. "There is little to be scared of. The rising price of gas will unlock countless doors to innovation, opportunity and change."
Steiner successfully presents his theory. In my own life I can see the changes already taking place. I use my own cloth bags at the store rather than plastic ones. I group all errands into one trip. I drive a car with a higher mpg rating. My home is cooler in the winter and warmer in the summer due to adjusting my thermostat. We raise much of our own food. I can definitely see where Steiner's theory makes sense. However, I do fear, the economic impact of what he suggests will not be easy or pretty.
Change will leave many jobless, homeless and hungry. He suggests more will work from home. We often forget that many jobs cannot be done from home. Whether it is the sanitation department, ditch diggers, plumbers or factory workers, their jobs cannot be done from home. America has made no effort to prepare for this. Economically it will devastate the country. We are barely hanging on now.
It is my hope that citizens will read this book and take note. We should have begun preparing fifty years ago. It is only with drastic measures that we as a nation can survive what Steiner predicts.
Interesting, readable, but ultimately misleading.
Steiner's book was highly recommended to me; I recommend it, but with some real reservations. It's well-written - interesting reading, in fact - and many people will derive some comfort from it, which is part of its appeal. However, it falls down in three areas, in my view.
Firstly, it's strong on assertions and weak on evidence. For example, he asserts that the $6 price point "will activate change like no other". Why? No particular evidence. It seems plausible, I guess, and it's evident that at $6 there will be big impacts, but why more than at (say) $10?
Secondly (and this is the big one), the book points out the massive societal changes that will result from the rising oil prices, and looks to the positive impacts on society. It's comforting to many people to think of moving back to some of the positive aspects of life in the '50s - local food, local industry: more community. It may be comforting, but it's only half the story.
Take food: most small US farms aren't self-sufficient: they rely on off-farm jobs to work, and the farmers rely on oil-guzzling equipment and oil-derived fertilizers to operate. With rising oil prices, this equipment and fertilizer will be too dear to use. The farms will be less viable unless the farmers are prepared (and able!) to put in a lot more manual work and use less oil-intense methods of improving fertility - things like cover crops, composts, manuring. Do they have the skills? Do they have the inclination? Quite possibly not. And yet these are the same farms on which small-town America will rely for its food!
Food is just an example: my point is that it's fine to look at the end-result of a society re-born with less reliance on food, but between here and there is a huge gulf, and we won't get across it without a great deal of pain. And when pain involves economic collapse and food shortages, the breakdown of law and order is not far away. The first world is not immune to the knock-on effects of overpopulation and food shortages that happen everywhere else in the world. But Steiner either doesn't believe this (for some unstated reason) or simply ignores it.
Lastly, it's a hugely US-centric book, which is a shame, because with a little effort to add some material for the rest of the world (much of which will be similar, but some of which will clearly not!) the appeal of the book could have been much wider.
I liked the book and I'm glad I read it. But many people will walk away from it with the comfort of having seen the light at the end of the tunnel, and no inkling that while the end of the tunnel is near, that particular light is in fact an oncoming train.
Firstly, it's strong on assertions and weak on evidence. For example, he asserts that the $6 price point "will activate change like no other". Why? No particular evidence. It seems plausible, I guess, and it's evident that at $6 there will be big impacts, but why more than at (say) $10?
Secondly (and this is the big one), the book points out the massive societal changes that will result from the rising oil prices, and looks to the positive impacts on society. It's comforting to many people to think of moving back to some of the positive aspects of life in the '50s - local food, local industry: more community. It may be comforting, but it's only half the story.
Take food: most small US farms aren't self-sufficient: they rely on off-farm jobs to work, and the farmers rely on oil-guzzling equipment and oil-derived fertilizers to operate. With rising oil prices, this equipment and fertilizer will be too dear to use. The farms will be less viable unless the farmers are prepared (and able!) to put in a lot more manual work and use less oil-intense methods of improving fertility - things like cover crops, composts, manuring. Do they have the skills? Do they have the inclination? Quite possibly not. And yet these are the same farms on which small-town America will rely for its food!
Food is just an example: my point is that it's fine to look at the end-result of a society re-born with less reliance on food, but between here and there is a huge gulf, and we won't get across it without a great deal of pain. And when pain involves economic collapse and food shortages, the breakdown of law and order is not far away. The first world is not immune to the knock-on effects of overpopulation and food shortages that happen everywhere else in the world. But Steiner either doesn't believe this (for some unstated reason) or simply ignores it.
Lastly, it's a hugely US-centric book, which is a shame, because with a little effort to add some material for the rest of the world (much of which will be similar, but some of which will clearly not!) the appeal of the book could have been much wider.
I liked the book and I'm glad I read it. But many people will walk away from it with the comfort of having seen the light at the end of the tunnel, and no inkling that while the end of the tunnel is near, that particular light is in fact an oncoming train.
Having been a confirmed "Peak Oil" person for years, I bought this book to see what changes are likely to occur in our economy in response to rising oil prices. I liked how the author structured his book in $2 chapters - life at $4/gallon gas, $6, $8, and so on. Smaller cars, hybrid cars, more public transportation, less imported produce, and so forth, step by $2 step.
But as I continued to read, I liked the book less and less because of two serious problems.
First, the author seemed to be gloating over his predicted disruptions. He seems happy when he writes that the airline industry will cease to exist and there'll be no imported oranges in winter. He cares not a bit for the people who would be hurt by those changes - consumers and employees.
Second, other than predicting more electric cars and high-speed rail, he has nothing positive in the book. The greatness of this country is that it always finds solutions to problems. Here the author describes the destruction of this and the demise of that, without bothering to comment of what might arise in their place.
The first great energy crisis in America occurred a century ago when the falling population of whales in the Atlantic reduced the supply of whale oil - the essential energy source of that era. We have overcome that problem, haven't we?
But as I continued to read, I liked the book less and less because of two serious problems.
First, the author seemed to be gloating over his predicted disruptions. He seems happy when he writes that the airline industry will cease to exist and there'll be no imported oranges in winter. He cares not a bit for the people who would be hurt by those changes - consumers and employees.
Second, other than predicting more electric cars and high-speed rail, he has nothing positive in the book. The greatness of this country is that it always finds solutions to problems. Here the author describes the destruction of this and the demise of that, without bothering to comment of what might arise in their place.
The first great energy crisis in America occurred a century ago when the falling population of whales in the Atlantic reduced the supply of whale oil - the essential energy source of that era. We have overcome that problem, haven't we?
Thought provoking, well researched and a must read
First, let me note that this is not the type of a book that I would have likely read without hearing Mr. Steiner's engaging interview on NPR. I'm not a raging environmentalist and already living in a major urban area with decent public transportation, I've never given more than a passing consideration to gas prices. Sure, I knew fossil fuels were used in the production of just about everything, but, I thought, so what? Rising gas prices won't have that big of an impact on me.
In $20 a Gallon, Mr. Steiner artfully demonstrates just how wrong my thinking was. In an incredibly engaging and well-researched manner, Mr. Steiner forcefully demonstrates what America will look like as gas permanently and inevitably rises to $20 a gallon. In each chapter, where gas prices increase by $2 increments, Mr. Steiner not only shows the industries and sections of the country likely to be devastated by rising fossil fuel costs, but also highlights many bold new initiatives that may help lessen our dependency on fossil fuels.
Still, $20 a Gallon isn't the screaming polemic you'd expect to hear from some flower child gone to seed. It's written in a breezy, straightforward manner that at times feels almost novelistic. The pure level of sweep in the book--from the Mississippi to sushi fishing in Japan and Alaska to subterranean Manhattan and beyond--is a welcome bonus.
If our country is serious about breaking its dependence on foreign oil and fossil fuels, and even more importantly, sincerely wishes to build a truly 21st century industrial and commercial base, this book should be required reading for city mayors and planners, state and federal legislators, and the general public. I'm buying extra copies for friends--it's that important.
In $20 a Gallon, Mr. Steiner artfully demonstrates just how wrong my thinking was. In an incredibly engaging and well-researched manner, Mr. Steiner forcefully demonstrates what America will look like as gas permanently and inevitably rises to $20 a gallon. In each chapter, where gas prices increase by $2 increments, Mr. Steiner not only shows the industries and sections of the country likely to be devastated by rising fossil fuel costs, but also highlights many bold new initiatives that may help lessen our dependency on fossil fuels.
Still, $20 a Gallon isn't the screaming polemic you'd expect to hear from some flower child gone to seed. It's written in a breezy, straightforward manner that at times feels almost novelistic. The pure level of sweep in the book--from the Mississippi to sushi fishing in Japan and Alaska to subterranean Manhattan and beyond--is a welcome bonus.
If our country is serious about breaking its dependence on foreign oil and fossil fuels, and even more importantly, sincerely wishes to build a truly 21st century industrial and commercial base, this book should be required reading for city mayors and planners, state and federal legislators, and the general public. I'm buying extra copies for friends--it's that important.
Gas prices aren't the half of it...
We try and bury our heads when it comes to gas prices. We whine, we snivel, all the while hoping like heck prices go back down, sighing heavily every time that they do. We don't want to address the question of "What happens when they stop going down? What happens when all they do, long term, is go up?"
This is an issue the book takes straight-on. I've read the doomsayers, the Long Emergencies, the Twilights in the Deserts. This book is different. It's not merely numbers plied with platitudes about civilization change. It's real stories about real life. It doesn't merely tell us how life will change, it shows us how life will change. That's a big difference.
So Wal-Mart won't survive, he says. But he doesn't just recount a litany of elephantine economic numbers related to Wal-Mart. He goes out and finds an empty Wal-Mart in the middle of small-town Ohio and describes what happens to one of these hangars when the company walks away and leaves it empty. They're called ghost-boxes in the book. And, according to Steiner, there's more than 300 Wal-Mart ghost boxes out there right now--and thousands more to follow.
I didn't expect to learn much, frankly, from this book after having dipped into this genre several times before. But to include this in the "oil genre" is a disservice to the book and would-be readers. You're on the ground with farmers and UPS drivers here, in their world, in our world. This is a book about people and how we're affected, in all directions, by the price up and the price down, of gasoline. The chapter construction, built on $2 increments in the price of gasoline and each level's effects, is ingenious.
This book covers a lot of bases, from how our food world will change to our cars to our homes. It's a thorough effort, but it keeps things brisk that you find yourself moving on to the next topic sometimes before you'd even like to. I put this right up there with The Omnivore's Dilemma and The World Without Us.
Bring on Chapter $22!
This is an issue the book takes straight-on. I've read the doomsayers, the Long Emergencies, the Twilights in the Deserts. This book is different. It's not merely numbers plied with platitudes about civilization change. It's real stories about real life. It doesn't merely tell us how life will change, it shows us how life will change. That's a big difference.
So Wal-Mart won't survive, he says. But he doesn't just recount a litany of elephantine economic numbers related to Wal-Mart. He goes out and finds an empty Wal-Mart in the middle of small-town Ohio and describes what happens to one of these hangars when the company walks away and leaves it empty. They're called ghost-boxes in the book. And, according to Steiner, there's more than 300 Wal-Mart ghost boxes out there right now--and thousands more to follow.
I didn't expect to learn much, frankly, from this book after having dipped into this genre several times before. But to include this in the "oil genre" is a disservice to the book and would-be readers. You're on the ground with farmers and UPS drivers here, in their world, in our world. This is a book about people and how we're affected, in all directions, by the price up and the price down, of gasoline. The chapter construction, built on $2 increments in the price of gasoline and each level's effects, is ingenious.
This book covers a lot of bases, from how our food world will change to our cars to our homes. It's a thorough effort, but it keeps things brisk that you find yourself moving on to the next topic sometimes before you'd even like to. I put this right up there with The Omnivore's Dilemma and The World Without Us.
Bring on Chapter $22!
A Thoughtful Study of the Inevitable
Gas prices will increase far beyond current rates. This much is certain.
That premise, the "inevitable rise", is the foundation of a clever, thoughtful study of our collective reliance on, and eventual separation from all things petroleum. The author does a wonderful job outlining exactly why this phenomenon is a certainty (billions of people worldwide waiting to live American style lives, higher demand, dwindling supply), and draws on myriad sources to form his own predictions for the future. Among the most compelling; the death of commercial airlines, the crumbling of suburbia, and stunning innovations in rail transport. Oh yeah, and no more Disney World. Sorry kids!
To say this book is thought provoking is an understatement, indeed. Can't wait for Steiner's next idea.
That premise, the "inevitable rise", is the foundation of a clever, thoughtful study of our collective reliance on, and eventual separation from all things petroleum. The author does a wonderful job outlining exactly why this phenomenon is a certainty (billions of people worldwide waiting to live American style lives, higher demand, dwindling supply), and draws on myriad sources to form his own predictions for the future. Among the most compelling; the death of commercial airlines, the crumbling of suburbia, and stunning innovations in rail transport. Oh yeah, and no more Disney World. Sorry kids!
To say this book is thought provoking is an understatement, indeed. Can't wait for Steiner's next idea.
INNOVATIVE, POSITIVE AND THOUGHT PROVOKING
If you are looking for an excellent book to add to your summer reading list $20 Per Gallon fits the bill. It is an interesting and easy read, and holds one's attention throughout. It is presented in an organized format that enlightens and entertains the reader. I found it refreshing that the author did not employ the usual doom and gloom scenario that we find in many of the energy/environmental books published in recent years. Instead, the author thinks out of the box and presents in a positive thought provoking manner the future challenges and solutions that will be generated by the escalating price of fuel.
Imagine a world where the rising price of fuel brings us a cleaner environment due to fewer miles driven by gas guzzling vehicles, where cross country bullet trains get us to our destinations, where alternative
fuels such as wind, solar and geothermal energy become more cost effective and where resulting innovations spark new technologies. Instead
of dreading the future these and many more examples cause the imagination
to soar and challenge the reader to look to the future with hope!
Imagine a world where the rising price of fuel brings us a cleaner environment due to fewer miles driven by gas guzzling vehicles, where cross country bullet trains get us to our destinations, where alternative
fuels such as wind, solar and geothermal energy become more cost effective and where resulting innovations spark new technologies. Instead
of dreading the future these and many more examples cause the imagination
to soar and challenge the reader to look to the future with hope!
I bought the book because it looked interesting, but I didn't get to it right away because I am busy with a newborn. After I started reading it, however, I found myself always trying to get back to it. The read flows and the author uses real stories and examples to illustrate his points, which makes the read entertaining as well as informative.
I don't understand much about economics, but I understood this book. Mr. Steiner does a great job of making the effects of rising gas prices comprehendible and "real." Each chapter talks about the effects of gas prices hitting a higher dollar level and what aspects of our lives could change. I found the book almost interactive as I tried to guess what industries Steiner was going to talk about in the "next" chapter and what changes might take place.
He takes a long term view and it was almost comforting to read about where we are headed. The book isn't all flowers and sunshine and some people might not like what he has to say, but it's down to earth and appears to be well researched. If you are looking for a good read that will make you feel better about pumping fifty bucks into your car every week, this is it.
I don't understand much about economics, but I understood this book. Mr. Steiner does a great job of making the effects of rising gas prices comprehendible and "real." Each chapter talks about the effects of gas prices hitting a higher dollar level and what aspects of our lives could change. I found the book almost interactive as I tried to guess what industries Steiner was going to talk about in the "next" chapter and what changes might take place.
He takes a long term view and it was almost comforting to read about where we are headed. The book isn't all flowers and sunshine and some people might not like what he has to say, but it's down to earth and appears to be well researched. If you are looking for a good read that will make you feel better about pumping fifty bucks into your car every week, this is it.
Hold on tight! Steiner takes readers on eye-opening ride into the future....
Steiner obviously put a great deal of painstaking research into this work. His illustration of the future of energy is eye-opening and straightforward but not as doom and gloom as many other authors tend to be on the subject. Steiner's point about people changing only when they absolutely have to is a great testament to human nature. Throughout the book, he elaborates on the how the world population will alter their existence in order to prevail over the restrictions that finite amounts of natural resources provide.
I walked away from this more aware of the challenges in our future, but also excited about the back-to-basics alterations being made as the world overcomes these inevitable hurdles. Great read!
I walked away from this more aware of the challenges in our future, but also excited about the back-to-basics alterations being made as the world overcomes these inevitable hurdles. Great read!
Wonderful, thoughful read. It really flew by.
Who can't be excited by the prospect of cities like Detroit, Cleveland and St. Louis reviving to resemble their former selves? People will be driven, the book says, by high gas prices to seek out urban lifestyles where they can live near most of the important things in their lives (schools, stores, work, etc.)
One of the best things about the book is the way the chapters are built around different prices of gas: Chapter $8, Chapter $12, etc. I was always curious to see what the "next" price level held.
The tone of the book is fresh and carries the reader through the material with ease. For a non-fiction book, the pages really go by quickly.
Steiner does a good job finding a story to tell in every chapter, reflecting how cheap oil made the world we live in and how it will change as the price of gasoline goes up. Most of the stories are quite descriptive as it's clear the author did a lot of traveling to build the narrative here.
Frankly, my interest is piqued to see the future world that he paints.
One of the best things about the book is the way the chapters are built around different prices of gas: Chapter $8, Chapter $12, etc. I was always curious to see what the "next" price level held.
The tone of the book is fresh and carries the reader through the material with ease. For a non-fiction book, the pages really go by quickly.
Steiner does a good job finding a story to tell in every chapter, reflecting how cheap oil made the world we live in and how it will change as the price of gasoline goes up. Most of the stories are quite descriptive as it's clear the author did a lot of traveling to build the narrative here.
Frankly, my interest is piqued to see the future world that he paints.
A thought-provoking, outrageous work
This brilliant book has upset a lot of people. Steiner's thought hard about the future and asked questions that most of us would rather not: What would the world look like if gasoline cost $6 a gallon? $8? 18? Whether you believe that capitalism will find a way to keep cheap energy coming or not, it's worth digging into this book and exploring all the ways that cheap gas drives our daily lives.
The subject of this book may be hard to swallow, but it's the undeniable future of our country. With that said, the author still seems to overdo it. Every "change" the author describes comes off as too sensationalized and really distracted me from his overall point: the USA will change due to the price of oil, whether we like it or not.
I agree with him 100%, but I'm not in awe - like the author seems to be - over the shift from SUV's to small cars. I'm not shocked that people will start to live closer to work and take mass transit or walk/bike. The author, however, seems to think these are revolutionary ideas.
I'm as aware of peak oil as anyone, but I don't find the author's over-reaction all that enjoyable to read. He may be correct on many of his predicitions for the future, but his writing style is more talk radio hype than fun, but serious, theorizing about the near-future.
For a more enjoyable read, pick up "The Next Generation" or "The Age of the Unthinkable." While these books don't look exclusively at energy change, they do make predictions for the future and offer solutions to coming problems. Their authors also have more merit and a much better writing style.
I agree with him 100%, but I'm not in awe - like the author seems to be - over the shift from SUV's to small cars. I'm not shocked that people will start to live closer to work and take mass transit or walk/bike. The author, however, seems to think these are revolutionary ideas.
I'm as aware of peak oil as anyone, but I don't find the author's over-reaction all that enjoyable to read. He may be correct on many of his predicitions for the future, but his writing style is more talk radio hype than fun, but serious, theorizing about the near-future.
For a more enjoyable read, pick up "The Next Generation" or "The Age of the Unthinkable." While these books don't look exclusively at energy change, they do make predictions for the future and offer solutions to coming problems. Their authors also have more merit and a much better writing style.
The author does a good job of following a specific track into the future; following the path at which modern, industrial, car-centric American life might develop into a future with the price of fuel steadily rising. It certainly serves are a relatively pleasant contrast to the usual doomsday scenarios outlined by the doomers of the Peak Oil crowd. He paints a marvelous image of a future of technological renaissance, brightly shining with potential and future wonders, in a much cleaner, greener world.
That said, he shows a woeful lack of attention to the myriad side effects of the hydrocarbon peaks; he seems to assume that there will be bountiful supplies of electricity, despite the rising evidence that both natural gas and coal will reach their resource peaks not all that far into the future. More, he fails to account for the energy costs of the myriad technologies he touts, as well as the other inputs required. Certainly, bioplastics have great potential - but with climate change, topsoil depletion, water depletion, and a still-growing world population, where will the feedstock for these plastic come from? Where will the energy required to build these massive superdense cities be found? Had we begun the projects he talks of thirty years ago, when the first oil shocks struck as America's own reserves peaked, we might be well on the road to such a bright future. Sadly, we now face a world of depleted resources, drastic climate shift, and increasing probability that we will experience a chain of events known as catabolic collapse.
Still, if you want an upbeat view of the future that doesn't assume we have completely limitless resources, I would suggest this book for you.
That said, he shows a woeful lack of attention to the myriad side effects of the hydrocarbon peaks; he seems to assume that there will be bountiful supplies of electricity, despite the rising evidence that both natural gas and coal will reach their resource peaks not all that far into the future. More, he fails to account for the energy costs of the myriad technologies he touts, as well as the other inputs required. Certainly, bioplastics have great potential - but with climate change, topsoil depletion, water depletion, and a still-growing world population, where will the feedstock for these plastic come from? Where will the energy required to build these massive superdense cities be found? Had we begun the projects he talks of thirty years ago, when the first oil shocks struck as America's own reserves peaked, we might be well on the road to such a bright future. Sadly, we now face a world of depleted resources, drastic climate shift, and increasing probability that we will experience a chain of events known as catabolic collapse.
Still, if you want an upbeat view of the future that doesn't assume we have completely limitless resources, I would suggest this book for you.
Christopher Steiner presents a cogent argument for the changes that will come to the American lifestyle with the rise in the price of gasoline. A cautionary tale, it is one we can take to heart today and begin working at making changes voluntarily rather than waiting until we are forced to do so. Excellently and clearly written. It should be required reading for all.
Very interesting book and I really enjoyed reading it. Pretty quick read as well. Steiner did plenty of research before writing this book. If you have an interest in future energy, renewables, etc it's worth the read.
$20 Per Gallon struck me as an elaborate "thought experiment", a kind of giant "what if....?" exercise. However, it is a completely worthwhile thought experiment to engage in. I thought most of what the author theorizes makes perfect sense. I am fairly simpatico with most of his thoughts, and personally would like to live long enough to see the demise of the internal combustion engine. He does seem a bit too optimistic for my taste, however. Yes, ultimately, expensive fuel will undoubtedly make things better for people (cleaner air, for one thing; and we can finally say good riddance to getting involved in hostile oil-producing countries). In the meantime however, things would be very tough and grim indeed, with massive price increases in just about everything.
One thing for sure that would happen is that the price of beef would sky-rocket. Here's why: All the corn and grain currently fed to cows would be turned instead into ethanol fuel. Fewer cows, less beef and dairy, and very expensive beef (and milk, and ice cream), and also probably very expensive chicken as well, because most of their feed is corn-based. So, vegans should rejoice at expensive gasoline, which will do what no amount of PETA commercials or anti-meat propaganda could possibly do, which is end meat-eating as we know it. (Sure, the wealthy will always be able to afford meat, the way they can afford yachts and the rest of us cannot.)
Personally, I think gasoline is seriously under-valued in this country. The 18-cent per gallon gas tax is ridiculously low, it hasn't changed at all since gasoline was $1 per gallon. Why the tax wasn't pegged as a percent of the cost of gasoline is beyond my comprehension. Perhaps if the federal government instituted a 25 percent gas tax, and spent the money on building great public transit and "super trains", then the future shock that will undoubtedly occur will not be as disruptive. Unfortunately, most cultures, and certainly the American culture is much more reactive than pro-active. We are in for a bumpy ride.
One thing for sure that would happen is that the price of beef would sky-rocket. Here's why: All the corn and grain currently fed to cows would be turned instead into ethanol fuel. Fewer cows, less beef and dairy, and very expensive beef (and milk, and ice cream), and also probably very expensive chicken as well, because most of their feed is corn-based. So, vegans should rejoice at expensive gasoline, which will do what no amount of PETA commercials or anti-meat propaganda could possibly do, which is end meat-eating as we know it. (Sure, the wealthy will always be able to afford meat, the way they can afford yachts and the rest of us cannot.)
Personally, I think gasoline is seriously under-valued in this country. The 18-cent per gallon gas tax is ridiculously low, it hasn't changed at all since gasoline was $1 per gallon. Why the tax wasn't pegged as a percent of the cost of gasoline is beyond my comprehension. Perhaps if the federal government instituted a 25 percent gas tax, and spent the money on building great public transit and "super trains", then the future shock that will undoubtedly occur will not be as disruptive. Unfortunately, most cultures, and certainly the American culture is much more reactive than pro-active. We are in for a bumpy ride.
This is one book that tells it like its going to be. A real and logical look in to the future.
Listened to the Audio Book. I have not listened to an entire audio book in some time but this one captured my attention and I found myself listening in the car, at home and even at work. That's something else I don't normally do.
Considering this book in any format? Stop considering & make the purchase. When your done with it, share it with others!
Considering this book in any format? Stop considering & make the purchase. When your done with it, share it with others!
Christopher Steiner draws insightful conclusions and makes intelligent forecasts about what a world where gasoline costs $20 a gallon. His writing is well-researched and concise. I highly recommend this book.
the author, steiner, manages to address something that we all worry about and wonder about and he outlines what will happen in a thoughtful and provocative way. i liked best that it's not fearmongering or negative at all -- just 'here is what we can expect to fall away as the pump price reaches each threshold.' it's creatively organized, too. and the people he interviews are interesting -- he didn't just sit in his den at his computer and spin a yarn, he *reported* and researched this topic and told it well.
buy this book, it's a great read!
buy this book, it's a great read!
Although I don't agree with everything the author suggests will happen, this was a fascinating read. Particularly conspicuous was the lack of fear-mongering; the author considers much of what he proposes will happen to be a positive thing, giving the book an unusually cheerful tone. The chapter numbering was rather annoying, but obviously a minor concern. I would definitely recommend this book to anyone on the simple principle that its subject applies to all of us and will you a great deal to think about, whether or not you agree with the author's view.
Makes a good, well-written case.
I enjoyed the book. Not every piece of information in it was new to me, but some of it was and it was eye-opening.
The next 15 years will be some of the most interesting mankind has ever seen. I like to think I've gotten a little preview from this book, but we'll see how things shake out!
The next 15 years will be some of the most interesting mankind has ever seen. I like to think I've gotten a little preview from this book, but we'll see how things shake out!
Projects a major gas price hike that will continue for decades
$20 PER GALLON: HOW THE INEVITABLE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GASOLINE WILL CHANGE OUR LIVES FOR THE BETTER projects a major gas price hike that will continue for decades - and will affect all aspects of everyday life. From how people choose to travel - via train, for example, rather than plane - to a future without garbage trucks and where outsourced jobs come back to America, this offers some startling images of social change. Any general lending library needs this.
Well written -- Holds Interest -- Focus on technology is excellent -- Assertion about future evolution and prediction of positive outcome is fascinating.
Share your thoughts with other customers
Create your own review
Create your own review
To begin with, it is too easy and common to capitalize on fear. You can always come up with myriad ways in which something that is happening right now is going to make the future worse. It is easy to write, it is easy to sell, it is easy to gain an audience. In short, it is easy to sell fear. However, what do we really learn from fear? The answer is easy. We learn nothing. It hinders us from making rational and intelligent choices, it keeps us from planning appropriately, and it hinders tolerance and development.
Steiner decided to take the more difficult path with this book and focusses on rational thought for our future as fuel prices continue to rise. Steiner gathered up information, made an informed decision, and presented ideas for discussion. Furthermore, he took a more positive approach with it. That is what really sets this book apart. Instead of looking for an easy fear story to sell, the author points out the benefits.
Steiner did not take the easy route with this book. He went after a difficult topic to open it up for discussion. Whether or not you agree with the author's ideas and conclusions, you will come away from this book thinking more in depth about our fossil fuel usage.